As Democrats savor their victories in Tuesday’s Ohio abortion referendum, Kentucky governor’s race and Virginia and New Jersey legislative contests, they might be tempted to ignore the implications of a Nov. 3 New York Times/Siena College poll that shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden in five of six 2024 battleground states. Mr. Trump lost all six in 2020.
Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by 5 points in Arizona, 6 in Georgia, 5 in Michigan, 10 in Nevada and 4 in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden beats Mr. Trump only in Wisconsin, by 2 points. Among the combined six-state sample of 3,662 registered voters, Mr. Trump leads by four points, 48% to 44%. If the 2024 election plays out this way—adjusting for reapportionment but otherwise assuming other states stay the same—Mr. Trump would flip the White House, winning 302 electoral votes to Mr. Biden’s 236. Last time it was 232 Trump, 306 Biden.
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